《北威觀測站》 拜登在全國民調中戰勝川普
《Bellwether Watchpoint》Biden Maintains Lead over Trump in National Poll 2020.8.17

NBC新聞和華爾街日報(Wall Street Journal)在八月9-12日共同針對十一月的大選進行了全國民調,結果顯示民主黨候選人拜登在眾多項目與整體表現上,較現任總統川普略勝一籌。

拜登在全國登記選民中獲得50%支持率,相較於川普的41%,多出了9%。此民調也指出有61%的投票者認為美國針對新冠病毒的處理方式是失敗的,其中有39%更覺得它「非常失敗」。除了疫情處理,拜登在移民、健保、種族等議題上也都有著比川普多出許多的認同率,唯有經濟面仍是川普有勝面的強項,且民調也顯示出經濟是美國人民目前最關心的議題。

另外,拜登在上週公佈了副手人選,此民調指出副總統候選人哈里斯(Kamala Harris)擁有比拜登和川普都還要高的個人評價(+4分,拜登為-6分,川普為-12分,前總統歐巴馬則有+20分),顯示她「加入戰局」為此次大選將帶來不可小覷的影響。

話雖如此,大選前仍有極大變數。有55%的拜登支持者表示他們是因為對川普反感而做此決定,只有38%的支持者真正認同拜登;相反的,有74%的川普支持者都稱自己認同川普,只有20%表示是因為反對拜登所以挺川普。創造此份民調的其中一人,民主黨民調專家Peter Hart表示,雖然「拜登明顯領先,而川普顯然有很多問題」,但「拜登眾所皆知,卻不為多人所了解」。單看過半數的人支持拜登的原因便可知曉,眾多美國人民對拜登的政策、立場可能其實並不認同,或可說是根本不了解。

隨著十一月大選節節逼近,拜登和川普的拉鋸戰也愈演愈烈。可以很清楚看到的是,此次大選結果將被新冠疫情、美國經濟和種族問題這三大議題所主宰,但是從現在到十一月的發展值得密切關注。

《Bellwether Watchpoint》Biden Maintains Lead over Trump in National Poll 2020.8.17

NBC News and Wall Street Journal conducted a national survey regarding the Presidential candidates through August 9th-12th. The survey results revealed that democratic nominee Joe Biden is currently ahead of Trump in major issues.

Biden holds a 9 point advantage over Trump among registered voters, with 50% supporting him and 41% supporting Trump. The survey also shows that 61% of those voters believe America’s response to the pandemic was “unsuccessful,” with 39% of them calling it “very unsuccessful.” Other than the coronavirus response, Biden also holds a lead on issues like immigration, healthcare, and race relations. However, the handling of the economy, which was revealed to be the voters’ most prioritized issue, is still in favor of Trump.

In addition, Biden announced his running mate last week, and this survey points out that Harris has a higher personal rating (+4) than both Biden (-6) and Trump (-12), indicating her significant influence in this year’s election results.

With all that said, uncertainties remain. 55% of Biden supporters claimed that they support him because of their feelings against Trump, while 38% are voting based on their support for Biden himself. On the other hand, up to 74% of Trump voters made the decision based off of support for him, and only 20% are voting against Biden. Democratic pollster Peter Hart, one of the conductors of the survey, noted that even though “clearly, Biden is in the lead. Clearly, Trump has a lot of problems,” it’s also evident that “Biden is well-known, but not known well.” Simply by observing the amount of people voting for Biden solely for going against Trump, one can see that a lot of people either don’t approve of, or aren’t aware of to begin with, Biden’s policies and opinions.

As November approaches, the tension between Biden and Trump rises by the day. Even though things could still change before the election, there is no doubt that how the three major issues in the States: the pandemic, racial problems and the economy, progress, will be the main factors that determine election results.

 

整理撰寫:Abby Dzeng
資料來源:CNBC

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